If you do not take adaptive measures, the future temperature of each increase of one degree Celsius, the global wheat production may be reduced by 6%, which will cause 42 million tons in the global production, equivalent to the current global wheat trade volume of 1 /
Wheat plays an important role in raising the global population. However, global climate change will threaten the harvest of wheat. If adaptive measures are not taken, global wheat production is expected to decrease as the temperature increases.
The results of the study were published in the journal High Impact Factor, Nature-Climate Change, which was completed by an international research team and the Finnish Institute for Natural Resources has made outstanding contributions to this end.
The study found that food production is expected to decrease in most parts of the world as global climate temperatures rise. In 2012, the global wheat production was 701 million tons, while the temperature once higher, means that the world will reduce 4200 tons of wheat.
“In 2013, global wheat trading volume was 147 million tonnes, and from another perspective, this figure was equivalent to a quarter of global wheat trading volume, and wheat production due to climate change was higher than previously expected “Said RP. Rötter, a professor at the Finnish Institute for Natural Resources.” In fact, it should be predicted earlier, starting at a slight increase in temperature. ”
And it is critical to understand how different climatic factors interact and affect food production when deciding how to take measures to combat climate change.
The researchers conducted field trials and systematically tested 30 different wheat crop growth models. During the growing season, the regional temperature of the experiment was between 15 degrees Celsius and 26 degrees Celsius. Under the conditions of field experiment, the effect of temperature on the cut is very different. In addition, in some areas, higher temperatures in the year, crop yields; lower temperatures in the year, crop yields, which also increased year-on-year uncertainty.
“From recent years of experience, it can be seen that the variability of production is very important at an economic point of view, which can affect the stability of regional and global wheat supply and food security, amplifying market and price volatility,” said Professor P. Rötter.
The fifth annual assessment report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that by the end of the century, the global average temperature will rise by 5 degrees Celsius.
“Timely and appropriate response measures, such as the cultivation of more heat-resistant wheat varieties, can significantly reduce the risk of cut due to climate change.” R P. P. Rötter emphasized.
Researchers from different countries were involved in the collaborative study due to the Agricultural Model Comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). “Agricultural model comparison and improvement project” by the United States Columbia University, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the University of Florida to integrate and coordinate. In this global study, scientists from Finland, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, Colombia, Mexico, India, China, Australia, Canada and the United States are also involved.
In the study setup, the researchers first compared the experimental data of the simulated wheat crop growth model, which included artificial heating and simulated multi-regional field experiments. Researchers have found changes between individual growth models observed and simulated, and this deviation increases with increasing temperature during the growing season.
Based on the results of the monitoring, the scientists then applied the multi-model to calculate the wheat yield in the world’s major growing areas under elevated temperature conditions.